Thanks to supportive policies and favorable economic conditions, the world’s renewable power capacity is expected to experience a dramatic surge over the rest of this decade. According to a new IEA report, global additions in renewable energy will roughly match the current power capacity of China, the European Union, India, and the United States combined.
The Renewables 2024 report, the IEA’s flagship publication on renewable energy, projects that over 5,500 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable energy capacity will be added between 2024 and 2030, nearly tripling the increase seen between 2017 and 2023.
China is expected to account for almost 60% of the worldwide renewable capacity installed during this period, positioning the country to hold nearly half of the global renewable power capacity by 2030, up from one-third in 2010. While China leads in volume, India is growing at the fastest rate among major economies.
Solar PV is forecast to dominate, accounting for 80% of global renewable capacity growth by 2030, driven by large-scale solar projects and rooftop installations by businesses and households.
Despite challenges, the wind energy sector is also expected to recover, with its expansion rate doubling between 2024 and 2030 compared to the previous six years. Solar and wind are already the most cost-effective options for adding new electricity generation in nearly every country.
As a result, almost 70 countries, collectively representing 80% of global renewable capacity, are set to meet or surpass their renewable energy targets for 2030. While this growth doesn’t fully align with the goal set by nearly 200 governments at the COP28 climate change conference to triple global renewable capacity by 2030, the report forecasts that renewable capacity will increase by 2.7 times its 2022 level by 2030.
However, the IEA indicates that achieving the tripling target is feasible if governments act swiftly, including revising their Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and enhancing international cooperation to reduce high financing costs in emerging economies, particularly in regions like Africa and Southeast Asia.
“Renewables are moving faster than governments can set targets for, not only because of the push for lower emissions or energy security but because they now offer the cheapest option for new power plants in almost every country,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. He emphasized that the growth in renewables, particularly solar, will revolutionize global electricity systems by 2030. By that time, renewables are expected to supply half of the world’s electricity demand.
By 2030, renewables are forecast to generate almost 50% of global electricity, with wind and solar contributing 30%, doubling their current share. However, the report stresses the need for governments to improve the integration of variable renewable sources, such as solar and wind, into the power grid.
Curtailment rates—when renewable electricity isn’t fully utilized—are rising and have reached about 10% in some countries. To address this, the report recommends measures to enhance grid flexibility, modernize infrastructure, and streamline permitting processes, as well as the construction of 25 million kilometers of grids and 1,500 GW of storage capacity by 2030.
The share of renewables in final energy consumption is expected to rise to nearly 20% by 2030, up from 13% in 2023. However, the report notes that renewable fuels, like biofuels, biogases, hydrogen, and e-fuels, are lagging behind, requiring stronger policy support to decarbonize sectors that are difficult to electrify. These fuels remain more expensive than fossil fuels, and their share in the global energy mix is projected to stay below 6% by 2030.
The report also discusses the state of manufacturing for renewable technologies. Global solar manufacturing capacity is expected to exceed 1,100 GW by the end of 2024, more than double the projected demand. This surplus, concentrated in China, has led to a sharp drop in module prices, which have more than halved since early 2023.
However, many manufacturers are facing financial losses. In response, countries such as India and the United States are expected to triple their solar PV manufacturing capacity by 2030, promoting diversification. Still, producing solar panels in the U.S. and India remains more expensive than in China.
Policymakers are urged to weigh the costs and benefits of local manufacturing, considering priorities like job creation and energy security.
- Press release
